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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."